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The first Saturday in May can only mean one thing—the Run for the Roses is here! The 151st edition of the Kentucky Derby, known as the Greatest Two Minutes in Sport, takes center stage at Churchill Downs. Let’s dive into the contenders and see if we can find a winner. Here are the best bets, predictions, and picks you need to cash in and win big in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
When: Saturday, May 3rd, 6:57 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: NBC
Handicapping the Kentucky Derby 675e5y
When it comes to handicapping the Kentucky Derby, everything starts with the pace scenario. If you believe the frontrunners will control the race and hold their ground, those are the horses to focus on. But if you anticipate a fast pace that leads to a collapse up front, you’ll want to side with the closers.
With such a large field, luck in running plays a huge role. While it’s tempting to lean toward a horse positioned on the early pace, I’m leaning towards a different approach this year. Given the expected speed battle, I believe the race will set up perfectly for strong finishers coming fast and late.
The Favorite 3k2v5u
As for the hot favorite, Journalism, I’m happy to take a stance against him. His form looks solid on paper, but I wasn’t impressed with his last run—he ran into trouble and didn’t face elite competition. If he encounters similar issues here, he won’t get away with it.
Win Selections 186l3r
3 – Final Gambit – 16/1 3se23
Final Gambit has been drawing more attention from international bettors than those in the U.S. This striking grey, trained by Brad Cox, has shown consistent progress and boasts a dynamic profile. His performance in the Jeff Ruby Stakes was nothing short of spectacular—coming from deep in the pack to secure an eye-catching victory.
He’s a horse that won’t be slowing down as he nears the wire, and with the right setup, I believe he’ll time his run perfectly to get there just in time.
18 – Sovereignty – 6/1 1w86h
Sovereignty is a horse that ticks a lot of boxes, making him relatively straightforward to handicap. The Bill Mott trainee has been impressively consistent and has already proven himself at Churchill Downs. His last outing showcased a confident ride, and he handles tight racing situations well—an essential trait in the chaos of the Kentucky Derby.
Breaking from stall 18, he has the ability to track across and position himself smartly before launching a strong late run. If everything falls into place, he could be finishing with a flourish.
Horses to consider 2l3x9
9 – Burnham Square – 12/1 241j15
Burnham Square was sluggish out of the gate in his Blue Grass Stakes victory, taking his time to find his stride. He’ll need to be sharper here to deliver his trademark withering late surge. Fortunately, the extra furlong should work to his advantage, giving him more time to unleash his finishing kick. If he can get organized early, he has every chance to run into the places. Burnham Square has to be in consideration as a part of your Kentucky Derby picks this year.
16 – Coal Battle – 25/1 3h1bq
Coal Battle stands apart from the other selections, as he’s likely to be much closer to the blistering early pace. With four consecutive wins under his belt and a strong showing in the Arkansas Derby, he’s proven his ability to compete at a high level.
His wide draw could force him to settle just behind the speed, but that positioning might actually play to his advantage. If traffic becomes an issue for the deep closers, Coal Battle could get first run at the leaders—giving him a prime opportunity to strike.
Selections 6o711f
Win – 3 Final Gambit 16/1
8 – Sovereignty 6/1
Win/Place/Show and Exotics y2b5m
3 – Final Gambit
9 – Burnham Square
16 – Coal Battle
18 – Sovereignty
